cradleproject | WEEK 11

No, it matters. [he goes to rub at his face with his cut off arm, stops and just. stares at the ceiling instead] I don't... Even you shouldn't die? S'not right. You're the worst, but it's not... And. If it's two, it's worse? But if we don't, then it's everybody? And we've still got. Aliens.

[there's a bit of a pause before he deadpans:]

What's the percentage on that one now, anyway.

[ Jack actually looks mildly surprised at how Adrien responds here, but most of it, he doesn't respond to. The math becomes his focus, and he shrugs as he sits back. His gaze turns to the ceiling in idle thought as he runs the numbers in his head. ]

Well, we've got one left, it's a 7% chance, we have two, 14%. Do think there are some ways to narrow things down, but—

[ Jack waves a hand dismissively ]

Those aren't really anything based on the kinda facts that are relevant here. Just my gut feeling, like, I know I'm not infected, kiddo. Can't prove it, of course. [ Something seems to occur to him, and he grabs his datapad and starts to tap away at it. ] Actually, give me a few minutes.

[ And Jack will indeed be absorbed in whatever the heck he's doing for a few minutes, because this was bothering me. But eventually, he'll sit back and nod. ]

Okay, better figures: you've got five suspects, let's say one of them is infected. There are 2,002 different combinations of the five people from the fourteen, and from that, any one person will show up 715 times. That's a 36% chance that at least one of them is infected. If we still have two, that's 71%.

[ Which, if you're curious where those numbers came from, it looks like Jack wrote something up on his datapad. Also, kill me. ]

[...that's so much math god what the fuck. He's staring at Jack blankly for a moment before he moves his hand in a rewind sort of motion.]

Let's back it up a sec to where you think there're ways to narrow things down. Facts are good, but sometimes we have to look outside of facts. What're you thinking?

Seriously?

[ Jack seems pleased that someone asked, but at the same time, you can pretty much guarantee that what's about to come out of his mouth is probably terrible. He holds up two fingers to illustrate each of his points. ]

Alright, the one? We've got a pattern. Not a perfect one, and definitely not one I'd be betting my life on here or anything, but. I notice patterns. So, we've got Liz, Rhys, and Dave, and in two of those cases, they've both got at least one other person here. Now, granted, wouldn't take too much away from that, but you assume these dickheads are smart? Yeah, taking residence in someone that's got friends, seems like a good idea. I mean, most people are gonna hesitate shooting someone they know in the head. Suits them pretty well. You're taking advantage of that hesitation, since, shit, you hesitate at all with those things, you're gonna lose something, it seems like. Something to take into consideration, at least in terms of possibilities.

[ Though at this point, that would also tend to point to only one pair... ]

Two? I mean, similarly don't have anything other than a gut feeling, but gonna say that probably anyone that's been attacked by them and actually hurt is unlikely. I mean, that screws them over. You attack one of your own, you're gonna be weaker.

[ He shrugs and sits back ]

'Course, neither are guarantees here. Just thoughts.

[it takes him a second, because honestly he's still stuck back in the math part of things (why did he ask, he wasn't ready for that, more importantly i wasn't ready for that) but despite how hard it is for him to think right now, even he's able to put two and two together and get what Jack's implying.]

She's not!

[he's scrambling to try to get back up from where Luke tried to settle him, his objections coming out more frantic and desperate than he probably means them to]

She's not, take that back, take it back-- you hate her, fine, but don't you dare...

Yyyyeah, y'see, that? That is why I didn't bring it up in the first place.

[ Jack doesn't look impressed, but he shrugs dismissively. It doesn't seem like something he at least has a passionate interest in fighting, so it's similarly at least not quite dickish. He's just being cool and factual, so. Okay, maybe a little dickish. ]

Ya gotta face the facts, kiddo. It's a possibility. Not saying she is, but I'm not saying she isn't either.

They're not facts, they're--guesses. Two isn't a pattern, it's a coincidence. [is now rly the time to try to argue math, adrien. he's too woozy to be holding himself up for this long, and he's heavily leaning on his remaining arm even as he tries to argue something jack is obviously not interested in arguing]

You don't know any more than anyone else, the only thing we know for sure is that they're sadistic, that could mean anybody!

[someone shoosh him he's arguing with a brick wall]

[ Jack's expression actually shifts into a slight scowl at this point. He seems to pause and consider something, but he just sighs. ]

Look, I'm not arguing that, kiddo. Two is shit to define a pattern, but I was asked my thoughts, and there you go. That's my gut feeling, because otherwise? We're flying blind here.

[ He shrugs again, still dismissive ]

But, yeah. It could mean anybody. Could be you, could be me, could be who we both know you're really talkin' about here. That's kinda my point. This is getting to that point too where I think you idiots are finally starting to get what we're dealing with. The ship's contaminated. You think any station worth their security is gonna let us in without being absolutely sure we're not infected? No way. That's why, technically speaking, purge is the right call. But, personally? Nnnnot too keen on dying. Uh, again.

[ He hates admitting that part, though ]

So, we have to get rid of the Souvlaki ourselves. We don't? We either die, or we're stuck on this ship until we do. That's the kind of odds we're facing here.

[Jerkass Has A Point is a real thing, but Adrien is still scowling and looking ready to try and pick a fight regardless. Technicalities are fine, just leave his teen wife out of this, etc. Still, he's reluctantly less defensive when he points out:]

So far, our only way to know for sure is to let them kill. That's not...

[he wants to say a valid option, but he has the sudden realization that he will not like whatever Jack has to say next and just trails off on that one and m tries to anticipate the next proposition before he has to hear it and loses it completely: ]

We can't pick people off based on gut instinct either. They can take us out a lot easier than we can take them out.

[Putting a hand on his non-maimed shoulder]

Adrien, it's fine. We already know it can't be me, Tikki would know. Don't strain yourself.

[he flinches a bit at the contact, settling down a bit and hunching in on himself]

I'm not, I-- sorry. You're right.

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[ Jack scoffs and rolls his eyes ]

I mean, I'm not saying we pick based off gut instinct, Christ. I'm saying that if we're going to play this shit, we have to play it smart. We've got an infection. We've gotta get rid of it. That means people are gonna have to die. Because even if we know someone is infected? That means we've gotta let 'em kill if we wanna save the person.

[ He pauses, then exhales a heavy sigh before he shrugs. ]

Welcome to being a hero. It's make shit choices like this.

Edited 2016-08-17 03:13 (UTC)

[The amount of fucks Luke has left to give has pretty much reached zero, so theorize away, crazy man.]

While you have a point, the only people left among us that have someone else from their world…well. [He doesn't like those implications. That would solely leave Marinette.] While I guess that could be a good theory, that only maybe accounts for one. Would that mean…what, that the other alien's hiding in someone who might have a lot of connections on this ship?

List of people who've fought an alien, survived, and are still with us isn't that big either. [Clover, Grell, Jason, Fiona…his head is too scrambled to really recall immediately. Not to mention there's Dave.] But I think you're on to something. We were all arguing about killing one of the kids this last trial and that nearly screwed us, too.

We should maybe start making a list of possible hosts. If we can narrow down who might be an alien…then if we execute them, Alice can heal them and we still keep our numbers, right? [Look who forgot the fact that the alien has to kill and be put on trial.]

It'd make sense, wouldn't it? That's the best place to hide, because they're the one least likely to get killed. Hell, I'd even make a bet that whatever's left, they're hiding in a kid.

[ He doesn't say it, but the implication is clear enough: a child would be the hardest to kill. The logs had even said as much, and that's the cold logic that Jack is thinking of here. If you were one of them, who would you want to hide in? ]

But you're still forgetting an important part here, pumpkin. [ ...I'm so sorry, Luke. You've made it to pet name status. Please forgive me. At least it doesn't sound creepy with his tone, I swear. ] To save the person, the alien has to kill.

[Folding her arms a little but she doesn't seem nearly as bothered by the accusation as Adrien is, though she's frowning. She more looks tired than anything]

Except that Rhys did nothing but provoke everyone around him. [Except for Fiona] Personality obviously wasn't a factor in them picking.

Ah ah ah, now, if we're honest here? I provoke everyone around me. Rhysie just can't keep his mouth shut when he needs to. C'mon now.

[ He corrects Marinette pretty sharply on that point, but to the rest, he scoffs. ]

Buuuut, it's also just a theory, kiddo. A way to may aim instead of just shooting friggin' fish in a barrel.

You're both pieces of work. He made people dislike him on his own, not just when he was yelling about you.

[but nah, Jack is worse, she's not going to argue that point.]

I know that. Doesn't mean it's an accurate one. Or that we can eliminate people based on who the aliens attacked.

[ Jack's expression twists up, and it's hard to tell just why that is. It's clear that something about what Marinette has said here is something he dislikes, but his voice is smooth when he speaks. ]

Then, I'm all ears, kiddo. You got a better theory? A better idea? Because this is a tough call. No matter what we decide? People are gonna die.

[ He points a finger at her, but his gaze is intense. ]

You realize that, right? We've aaaall got blood on our hands here. You included. In fact- [ Jack shrugs, and his tone eases up ] In fact, if you weren't picking fights? Hell. Rhys might just still be alive.

I know that. [Maybe surprisingly, she doesn't argue that point. It's her fault too, she's failed to save anyone, and participated in this game as much as anyone else. The blood is on her hands too. But there is one thing she takes offense to--]

You killed Rhys. You and no one else.

[But she leaves it at that, because right now, she isn't interested in fighting. She runs her hand through her hair--]

It depends when exactly the aliens started to infect people. If it were the second we got here, or while we were in the pods, then, how could they pick? Did they have the information the AI has on us? Rhys came with two other people, Elizabeth with no one, and Dave with Roxy. They were active only a few weeks into our stay here, so, my guess is that either they work individually with limited contact with each other, or... communicate somehow, like... telepathically, or something.

[Dorian brought up the point about Dave and Elizabeth and the duplicates, so Marinette won't rehash, but:]

I think Rhys was an outlier. Or the aliens were choosing based off of personality -- the alien who picked Rhys probably thought no one would take him seriously as a threat. No one really suspected Dave or Elizabeth as killers, did they? [The same could be said about some of the real killers, like Bull and Adelina, but it nearly worked out for the aliens so far]

Edited 2016-08-18 02:06 (UTC)

Your second point is rather self-serving. As you would otherwise fit the first category too close for comfort, perhaps.

[It's not that he thinks Jack is wrong about the first being a pattern, nor does he actually think Jack is likely to be an alien, but he's also not pleased with Adrien being riled up.]

In fact, I recall that it was Elizabeth who attacked Rhys, giving you your opportunity to shoot him in the first place. So I should think that your hypothesis has a few glaring flaws.

Do you really think I give a shit?

[ Jack scoffs, dismissive as always, since he seems equal parts confident in what he's saying but also pretty dispassionate. It doesn't seem to matter to him much either way. ]

Look, I was asked for how I would narrow it down, I narrow it down. You don't like it? Come up with something better, cupcake. Because any narrowing here, that's gonna better our chance better than one or two in fourteen. All I'm thinking here. I think it's pretty friggin' clear, but just to restate it? For the most part, I really don't exactly care if most of you end up dead.

Did I come here and tell you your theory is wrong because I don't wish to believe it? I did not, and would not. But it is plainly inaccurate - based on Elizabeth and Rhys' behavior, the souvlaki don't care about injuring the others. And narrowing the parameters only increases our odds of success if we narrow them correctly. If you use the wrong rationale, you make our odds worse.

[He may not like Jack, but he isn't going to stifle real debate - he just thinks he's wrong.]

Bull and I considered whether there was a way you could identify the souvlaki. We'd a theory you could tell by looking at the votes, but I don't think it passes muster. He had a terrible theory about mages he unfortunately saw through to the end. But we did consider ruling out everyone who was injured by one of them, and discarded the idea as unreliable.

Here's something - both Elizabeth and Dave had executions that involved duplicate versions of themselves. The executions tend to be very personal, and Dave's time manipulation does involve making duplicates, so it seems drawn from that. If it were personal to Elizabeth, too, that would be a striking commonality.

Edited 2016-08-17 03:18 (UTC)

[ Jack scoffs, and it seems like he's amused by something Dorian says at the start, but it's not clear what that is. At the very least, it gets his expression to at least shift towards something more neutral, so it seems like it's enough for Jack to not push the issue of his own guesses, whatever it may be. ]

Hey, you at least offered something, so I'll take it. Kinda better than I was expecting.

[ He sounds condescending here, but he doesn't actually quite mean it that way. He's just an asshole as a default. ]

'Kay, so, with your theory, of duplicates, who would that narrow our pool down to, y'think?

[Two sacrifices.... Marinette seems to be thinking hard about this]

[It's not good]

Two aliens is the most likely, but we don't know for sure. There are so few of us now...

We don't know anything for sure.